Estimating work you have never done

Back to list2024-03-04
You

How do you estimate a task with unknown parts?

ChatGPT

Timebox the unknown separately. Estimate the known work normally, then add an explicit investigation slot with a decision point at the end. Merging the two produces a number that is wrong in a way nobody can inspect.

Tool steps: 3 (reasoning summary, call to python, execution output)
reasoning summary
Checked the query plan, then compared index options.
call to python
rows = run_sql("EXPLAIN (ANALYZE) SELECT ...")
print(rows[:3])
execution output
Seq Scan on events  (cost=0.00..812431.00 rows=41203122 width=16)
  Rows Removed by Filter: 38996878
Planning Time: 0.214 ms
Execution Time: 11842.663 ms
You

One offer has more cash, the other more equity. How do I compare them?

ChatGPT

Value the equity at zero and see whether the decision changes. If the lower-cash offer still wins on work and people, the equity is upside. If it only wins with the equity counted at face value, you are being paid in a lottery ticket priced by the seller.